Frank's calculations assume the pre-london mulligan rule of going down 1 card each time you mulligan (no scry), not the Commander mulligan of one free mulligan at the start, so the % chance of hitting your lands is actually a little higher for us
But Im still very hesitant to pick them so early
You can play your subgame in a few minutes then get right back to your normal programming
Theyre more costly than Fog, but certainly deal with the threats more long-term
On turn one, you might want to use that shockland to produce white mana, even if you don't have any white spells in your hand, because it enables you to cast spells like "Path to Exile" or "Lightning Helix" later on
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